July 2024 saw a string of important political events that could shape the course of the war in Ukraine. First, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit officially declared Ukraine's membership in NATO "irreversible," a first for the alliance. Additionally, in the US presidential election, former President Trump, the Republican candidate, faced an assassination threat. Trump's potential to win the election has been attracting more attention, fueled by claims that he would "force concessions on Russia to secure a swift peace" for the Zelensky administration.

Furthermore, there were developments regarding the US presidential candidates: President Biden announced his decision not to run for re-election, while Vice President Harris declared her candidacy. The US's Ukraine policy is expected to be a key issue in the November 2024 US presidential election. Amidst these rapid changes, we have examined the future outlook of the war in Ukraine.

At the end of July, a military official in Kyiv stated that "what's needed now is momentum on the battlefield." The Zelensky administration, viewing the outcome of the NATO summit as a diplomatic success, is poised to make a new military gamble after August. The biggest goal is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has effectively controlled since its illegal annexation in 2014. While Ukrainian forces launched attacks on Crimea in late August 2023, they have recently significantly escalated the scale of their offensive. It's safe to say that the attack has "entered a new phase."

Recent persistent attacks using maritime drones and missiles have severely damaged Russia's air defense missile network. It is reported that only a handful of areas remain under complete aerial defense by Russian forces. The Black Sea Fleet has essentially withdrawn, not only from the Black Sea but also from the Sea of Azov. The ground forces guarding the peninsula are also mostly absent, focused on defense in the east. Taking these circumstances into account, the Ukrainian forces have formulated a "realistic plan" to reclaim Crimea.

Valery Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, directly confirmed the existence of a "realistic plan" to recapture Crimea in a late July interview with British media. According to military officials, the Commander-in-Chief is considering a landing operation by Ukrainian forces on the Crimean Peninsula. The Ukrainian military believes that Russian forces are no longer capable of preventing a landing. The Ukrainian military aims for this landing operation to mark the beginning of a full-scale recapture effort, not merely a temporary seizure. If this landing operation is carried out, it would signify the Ukrainian military's second major offensive since the failed large-scale counteroffensive in autumn 2023.

Meanwhile, some analyses suggest that the prolonged war in Ukraine has left the Russian military facing a shortage of missiles, causing them to rely on attacks using cheaper drones. The Russian military continues to use "Shahed," a suicide drone acquired from Iran, in attacks. Ukrainian President Zelensky accused the Russian military on August 3 of launching attacks using at least 1961 Shahed drones.

However, Ukraine is also strengthening its drone operations. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced in January of this year that it would procure drones worth about 7.9 billion yen from 16 companies. Furthermore, President Zelensky decided in June to waive customs duties on drone parts imports, pushing forward the development of more powerful drones. Ukraine is also developing unmanned submarines for use in maritime attacks. In a July interview with CNN, the head of the Ukrainian State Security Service revealed that they had used a domestically developed unmanned submarine to attack the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia.

This unmanned submarine is called "Sea Baby," and it was also used in the attack on a Russian landing ship that was damaged in the Russian naval base of Novorossiysk in July and the attack on a Russian tanker off the coast of the Crimean Peninsula.

The Ukrainian military is countering the Russian military by developing new strategies and weapons. The future course of the war in Ukraine hinges on whether the Ukrainian military succeeds in its landing operation to reclaim Crimea and how the Russian military responds. Given the weakening of Russia's air defenses and the vulnerability of Crimea's defenses, will the Ukrainian forces be able to succeed in their landing operation? The situation warrants close attention.