It has been revealed that 'safe deposit box deposits', which have long been a problem in Japan, are decreasing. This is believed to be due to factors such as economic revitalization and concerns about tax evasion. The issuance of a new banknote scheduled for July 3 is at the heart of the decline in safe deposit box deposits.

"Already about 400 billion yen in safe deposit box deposits have decreased since the beginning of 2024, and the current total amount of safe deposit box deposits is estimated to be about 60 trillion yen," said Koike Rihito, Senior Researcher at SOMPO Research Institute Plus. "While there is no logical reason to withdraw safe deposit box deposits due to the issuance of new banknotes, it is presumed that people are reducing their safe deposit box deposits due to a vague anxiety that 'the cash they have will become old banknotes'."

Based on data from the Bank of Japan, the graph below shows the increase/decrease in safe deposit box deposits using the year-on-year increase rate of the issuance amount (total amount of banknotes in circulation). It is considered that 'safe deposit box deposits are increasing' when the amount of 10,000 yen notes exceeds that of 1,000 yen notes, and 'safe deposit box deposits are decreasing' when it falls below. The amount of 1,000 yen notes is basically consumed in most cases, but the 10,000 yen notes are sometimes withdrawn for 'savings' purposes. Assuming this ratio, the amount corresponding to the so-called 'safe deposit box deposits' is estimated by subtracting the increase in 1,000 yen notes from the increase in 10,000 yen notes.

"In 2004, when new banknotes were last issued, there was a decrease of about 1.3 trillion yen. This time, we expect a decrease of more than 2 trillion yen in safe deposit box deposits. This is because this year is a unique year in which several factors are occurring that decrease safe deposit box deposits," Koike explained.

Koike points to the following factors as reasons for the decrease in safe deposit box deposits: (1) the increase in bank deposit interest rates due to the Bank of Japan's lifting of negative interest rates, (2) inflation, (3) the issuance of new banknotes, and (4) the introduction of the new NISA. Explanations are not necessary for (1) and (2) as they increase the disadvantages of safe deposit box deposits. Regarding the new NISA, Koike said, "According to a survey by the Central Council for Financial Promotion, the average financial asset holdings of households with two or more members holding financial assets is 17.58 million yen (median is 7.15 million yen). There is a possibility that the movement to shift safe deposit box deposits to investments in order to utilize the new NISA up to the limit will become stronger."