The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced on June 25, 2024, that it had issued arrest warrants for former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov on charges of war crimes and other crimes related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the news and expressed his hope for its success, but given that the ICC previously issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin, which has yet to be executed, it remains unclear whether the current warrants will be enforced.

The situation surrounding the Russian military is becoming increasingly chaotic. A year ago, Putin appointed Gerasimov as the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian invasion, but was this decision a success? What was the actual situation surrounding the Russian military at the time?

Last January, Putin made the unprecedented decision to appoint military chief Valery Gerasimov as the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian invasion. This is seen as a reflection of the difficulties and stagnation the Russian military is facing in Ukraine. Since last fall, Russia has been facing a counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces and has not achieved any notable successes on the eastern front. Criticism of the military is rampant within Russia, as hardliners leading mercenary groups gain influence.

Putin expected Gerasimov's appointment as commander-in-chief to improve the situation, including logistics, but realistically, this seems unlikely. Experts believe that Gerasimov's appointment as commander-in-chief was based on Putin's “misperception” that he could successfully lead military operations.

Gerasimov is known for advocating “hybrid warfare,” a combination of cyber attacks and conventional battles, and is credited with successfully leading the Russian military's operations in the annexation of Crimea in southern Ukraine in 2014 and subsequent operations in Syria. He has been considered a military elite since the Soviet era and, unlike Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who has no military experience, has played a substantive role in military leadership.

However, there are few reasons to be optimistic about Gerasimov's future as commander-in-chief. The Russian military was driven out of the eastern Kharkiv region by Ukrainian forces last fall and also withdrew from Kherson in the south. They are failing to achieve notable successes on the eastern front. Weapons and ammunition supplies are not being delivered properly, and soldiers are being sent into battle with insufficient equipment, leading to low morale and criticism within Russia. Gerasimov has appointed three deputy commanders, including former commander-in-chief Sergei Surovikin, but their specific roles remain unclear.

The Russian military is experiencing a shortage of supplies, has suffered casualties of up to 100,000, and it seems unlikely that a reorganization alone can significantly improve the situation. Despite this, Gerasimov's appointment as commander-in-chief is analyzed as a political decision by Putin, motivated by a desire to protect the Russian military from the hardliners leading the rapidly emerging mercenary groups, rather than strategic merit.

The Russian military is facing far greater difficulties than expected in Ukraine, and concerns about a protracted war are growing. Even after Gerasimov's appointment as commander-in-chief, the situation has not significantly improved, and the Russian military may face a more perilous situation if it fails in the upcoming anticipated offensive.